A new wave of gloomy data last Thursday offered the latest evidence that the US is in a recession.

Factory activity declined in the mid-Atlantic area this month, though at a slower pace, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said.

Jobless claims jumped to a post-Hurricane Katrina high. And two leading gauges show the economy continuing to deteriorate.

Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute ECRI), has thrown in the towel for the expansion.

“US leading indices have now turned clearly onto the recessionary track,” he wrote in an e-mail.

The annualised growth rate for ECRI’s leading US index was -10.4 per cent in the week ended March 14 and has been at recessionary levels for most of 2008.

Separately, the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators fell for a fifth straight month, down 0.3 per cent to 135 in February, the lowest in nearly three years.

“The economy may be grinding to a halt,” said Ken Goldstein labour economist at the Conference Board. “The economic signals are flashing yellow, and an outright contraction cannot be ruled out.”

New claims for jobless benefits rose by 22,000 to 378,000 in the week ended March 15, the Labour Department said. That matched a post-Katrina high.

A strike at American Axle, a supplier to auto manufacturers GM and Chrysler, has idled 42,000 workers in the Midwest and likely drove the jump in claims, said Scott Brown chief economist at Raymond James.

Still, “Job losses pick up in a recession, and we could see more in coming months,” Brown said.

People still on the dole rose to 2.85 million, the most since 2004.

The Philly Fed index came in at -17.4 in March, signalling contraction for a fourth straight month. But that’s above views and up from February’s seven-year low of -24.

Capital spending plans were the lowest since 2001, while the jobs gauge was the worst in a year.

Bad is better than worse, or so thought investors. The Dow and Nasdaq rose 2.2 per cent, and the S&P 500 climbed 2.4 per cent.

Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research, said the latest data don’t tell the whole story.

Agriculture and exports have kept the US afloat, he said, but have largely been ignored. Tax rebate checks expected to reach consumers this summer will help alleviate some of the jitters, he said.

“We’re on tap for a refill in a couple of months,” he said. “The stimulus packages will refill the glass and should put us back on track.”